Bitcoin (BTC) bears have been in management since Nov. 11, subduing BTC value beneath $17,000 on each 12-hour candle. On Nov. 28, a drop to $16,000 shattered bulls’ hope that the 7% positive aspects between Nov. 21 and Nov. 24 have been sufficient to mark a cycle low at $15,500.

The most definitely offender was an unexpected transfer of 127,000 BTC from a Binance chilly pockets on Nov. 28. The large Bitcoin transaction instantly triggered concern, uncertainty and doubt, however the Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, subsequently introduced it was a part of an auditing course of.


Regulatory stress has additionally been limiting BTC’s upside after stories on Nov. 25 confirmed that cryptocurrency lending agency Genesis World Capital and different crypto corporations have been under investigation by securities regulators in the USA. Joseph Borg, director of the Alabama Securities Fee, confirmed that its state and a number of other different states are investigating Genesis’ alleged ties to securities legal guidelines violation.

On Nov. 16, Genesis introduced it had briefly suspended withdrawals, citing “unprecedented market turmoil.” Genesis also hired restructuring advisers to discover all doable choices, together with however not restricted to a possible chapter, as reported by Cointelegraph on Nov. 23.

Let’s take a look at derivatives metrics to higher perceive how skilled merchants are positioned within the present market situations.

Margin markets present leverage longs at a 3-month excessive

Margin markets present perception into how skilled merchants are positioned as a result of it permits traders to borrow cryptocurrency to leverage their positions.

As an illustration, one can enhance publicity by borrowing stablecoins to purchase Bitcoin. Alternatively, Bitcoin debtors can solely brief the cryptocurrency as they wager on its value declining. Not like futures contracts, the stability between margin longs and shorts isn’t at all times matched.

OKX stablecoin/BTC margin lending ratio. Supply: OKX

The above chart exhibits that OKX merchants’ margin lending ratio elevated from Nov. 20 to Nov. 27, signaling that skilled merchants elevated their leverage longs in the course of the 6% dip towards $15,500. Presently at 34, the metric favors stablecoin borrowing by a large margin — the best in three months — indicating merchants have stored their bullish positions.

Leverage patrons ignored the current dip to $15,500

The long-to-short metric excludes externalities which may have solely impacted the margin markets. As well as, it gathers knowledge from alternate purchasers’ positions on the spot, perpetual and quarterly futures contracts, thus providing higher info on how skilled merchants are positioned.

There are occasional methodological discrepancies between completely different exchanges, so readers ought to monitor modifications as a substitute of absolute figures.

Exchanges’ prime merchants Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Supply: Coinglass

Regardless that Bitcoin failed to interrupt above the $16,700 resistance, skilled merchants have stored their leverage lengthy positions, in line with the long-to-short indicator.

As an illustration, the ratio for Binance merchants improved considerably from 1.00 on Nov. 21, however ended the interval at 1.05. In the meantime, Huobi displayed a extra substantial enhance in its long-to-short ratio, with the indicator shifting from 1.01 to 1.08 within the seven days till Nov. 28.

At crypto alternate OKX, the metric barely decreased from 0.99 on Nov. 21 to 0.96 on Nov. 28. Consequently, on common, merchants are assured sufficient to maintain including leverage to bullish positions.

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The $16,200 assist confirmed power, suggesting that merchants are turning bullish

These two derivatives metrics — margin and prime dealer’s long-to-short — counsel that dimension leverage sellers didn’t again the Bitcoin value correction to $16,000 on Nov. 28.

A bearish sentiment would have triggered the margin lending ratio to go beneath 15, pushing the long-to-short ratio a lot decrease. It is very important word that even professional merchants can misread the market, however the current studying from the derivatives market favors a robust $16,000 assist.

Nonetheless, even when the worth revisits $15,500, the bulls shouldn’t be involved because the derivatives indicators withheld neutral-to-bullish on Nov. 21 and additional improved in the course of the week.