Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a yr in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time highs in November 2021.

BTC worth efficiency has given buyers as much as 77% losses, however how a lot decrease can BTC/USD actually go?


Bitcoin merchants and analysts have lengthy agreed that 2022 is the yr of the most important cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.

After coming off all-time highs to start out the yr at round $46,000, BTC/USD has supplied little reduction and has since returned to ranges not seen since November 2020, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

That has positioned the pair in historic bear market backside territory — having misplaced a most of round 77% since the latest peak, Bitcoin might have little room left to fall.

This time, nevertheless, could also be totally different. Cointelegraph takes a take a look at what a few of the hottest crypto market commentators suppose in the case of the place Bitcoin will backside.

CryptoBullet: “Comfy shopping for” round $16,000

One well-known social media persona is sticking by a concept from earlier in 2022 — and it’s all about one explicit on-chain metric.

For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) nonetheless presents a key perception into macro BTC worth bottoms.

CVDD primarily counts how a lot “hodled” days a coin has gathered when it strikes to a brand new pockets. It’s expressed as a ratio to the general age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics useful resource Woobull explains is a “calibration issue.”

Trying again in time, CVDD has acted as a big line within the sand, and if this time isn’t any totally different, BTC/USD might already be giving consumers the very best revenue alternative.

In keeping with Woobull, CVDD at present lies at round $15,900.

“I really feel snug shopping for Bitcoin right here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter followers on Nov. 26.

“Can it go decrease? In fact it may. If one other crypto firm goes bankrupt or one thing like that $BTC will fall under CVDD, however not by a lot. The majority of the downtrend is over.”

Bitcoin Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) annotated chart. Supply: CryptoBullet/ Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case situation”

An previous hand within the crypto market is consistently reevaluating simply how unhealthy the bears could chew this time round.

Filbfilb, co-founder of buying and selling suite Decentrader, not too long ago told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD might see $10,000 across the new yr if macro situations worsen.

That was earlier than the FTX debacle, nevertheless, and the ensuing gas added to the bear market fireplace has brought on him to rethink.

In a livestream along with fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.

These range, nevertheless — a big “ladder” of bids lies just under spot worth and focuses on $12,000-$14,000. On the similar time, final help might come as little as $6,000.

Filbfilb moreover famous {that a} black swan occasion similar to additional crypto bankruptcies might set off a spike via the higher help area, opening up the potential for $10,000 or decrease subsequent.

A visit to the $6,000 zone, nevertheless, is “unlikely” underneath present circumstances, he suggested.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap knowledge. Supply: TradingView

Many eyes on the $14,000 prize

Filbfilb’s higher band of bid help on change order books is a well-liked goal for an rising variety of commentators.

Associated: Will Bitcoin hit $110K in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now

As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a big spot on the radar, and entries round there are already being deliberate.

That space would additionally carry BTC/USD losses versus all-time highs according to these of earlier bear markets.

BTC/USD drawdown vs. all-time highs chart. Supply: Glassnode

Not solely that, however $13,900 kinds a big help line on weekly timeframes, dealer and analyst Rekt Capital notes, one which has remained untested for the reason that second half of 2020.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don’t essentially replicate or characterize the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.